The best individual financial planning and investment rules and practices are enduring and should not change due to market cycles or a financial crisis. This article looks at asset allocation strategy in light of the recent credit crisis.

The credit crisis was a systemic, global financial event that impacted any financial or securities instrument influenced by debt and borrower credit worthiness. In short, the credit crisis affected everything. So many investors sought liquidity at the same time, because they either had to do so to meet their cash flow obligations and/or they feared greater losses and sought “safer” places for their money. Presto — the result was a global valuation downdraft that affected all asset classes. While some — but not all — classes of bonds did better relative to other asset classes, the real beneficiaries were those who already held bond positions before broader groups of investors got into a panic.

Whenever you are already there and invested in an asset class, it means that you probably were already following a passive asset allocation strategy. While tactical asset allocation strategy advocates will suggest that you can anticipate the crowd, this is not verified by studies of flows-of-funds into and out of investment mutual funds. While a very narrow segment of investors might have some skill in anticipating trends and does actively pre-position their investments relative to the movement of the crowds, most people already have their money invested in an asset class, because they have chosen strategically to be invested in that asset class for the long-term as a buy-and-hold investor. Flow-of-funds studies show that almost all tactical asset allocation fund flows are late money flows that chase performance after valuations have already moved. On average, this tactical asset allocation money is late money and these investors get inferior returns.

At the end of the first decade of the new millennium, huge cash flows into bond funds still continued relative to flows into other asset classes, such as stocks. This is a trend that was almost three years in the making. We have not seen similar disproportionate fund flows into bonds since the 1984 to 1987 period, when interest rates were much higher than today’s paltry yields. In succession during the past decade, we have experienced a technology bubble market crash, a housing bubble crash, a credit crunch, and a resulting global economic/business cycle crash. Barring a total global economic depression, which we seem to have skirted but avoided, what will happen to the bond markets when interest rates inevitably rise? Stay tuned for the next sector bubble crash.

Recently, there has been more advocacy of “tactical” asset allocation strategies by certain financial advisors. The logic goes as follows. Broad passively-managed asset class diversification strategies seemingly did not work during the credit crisis. Even broadly diversified investor portfolios went down, although not as much as portfolios that were more exposed to particular asset classes that had suffered the worst percentage declines. Therefore, buy-and-hold strategic asset allocation apparently did not work and should be thrown out. As a replacement, these financial advisors advocate that it is time to employ tactical asset allocation strategies that ‘could’ get better risk-adjusted portfolio returns in the future. You know, start moving things around to get ahead of the crowd and be there before the crowd arrives to drive up valuations.

Unfortunately, tactical asset allocation strategy advocates do not offer anything to back up their claims that tactical investment activity would actually be superior to a passive asset allocation strategy in the future. Tactical asset allocation strategies have not been superior in the past. Advocacy for tactical asset allocation strategies flies in the face of the broad body of investment research that consistently has shown that low-cost, broadly diversified, passive buy-and-hold asset allocation strategies tend to yield superior long-term risk-adjusted portfolio returns.

Broad portfolio diversification has never meant that a portfolio could not and would not experience short-term losses at the portfolio level. When you have an investment banking industry that finds clever ways to repackage smelly sub-prime mortgages as gilt-edged investment grade derivative mortgage securities and resells these stinkers in vast quantities to other “smart money” financial professionals across the banking and investment world, then we just might all have a problem. When doing this over and over gets a lot of clever investment banking types some very large bonuses, then there is a lot of motivation to keep that gravy train moving along.

While you might question the ethics of these clever investment bankers, you should not forget that they sold these toxic mortgage securities to other willing professional buyers in the global banking industry. Those professional banker purchasers, in turn, tucked these gilt-edged derivative securities into their banks’ capital asset portfolios — the very capital portfolios upon which the banks ran their leveraged loan operations. When the music stopped and all the emperors had no clothes, bank capital evaporated and so did their ability and willingness to make loans. Of course, this was all compounded by tens of trillions of dollars in CDOs (credit default swaps) that tried to pass the ultimate repayment responsibility for bad debt hot potatoes around. Did the investment bankers also make some sweet bonuses on the multi-trillion dollar CDO market? You betcha!

Without your taxpayer dollars via the TARP bank bailout, the US and the rest of the world would all be in the financial black hole of a long-term global financial depression. In that event, most people would not have had to worry about short-term paper losses on their investment portfolios. Instead, many would have liquidated their portfolio holdings at cents on the dollar to meet living expenses after their jobs vanished.

If you have been following the chatter, you might remember hearing that most TARP funds have been paid back and some TARP loans to the banking industry have been reasonably profitable. Of course, this supposed profitability is only positive from a very narrow perspective. Taypayers are not normally in the business of making bailout loans to the financial industry. While unfortunately necessary, it is difficult to argue that TARP loans were profitable to taxpayers, when you consider the vast global economic destruction that resulted; the job losses and the millions unemployed and under-employed; and the unreimbursed hole that many still have in their personal investment portfolios.

So, when a huge and systemic toxic asset problem exists in the financial system, and the credit house of cards begins to fall, why would or should a diversified strategic asset allocation strategy prevent a short-term loss at the portfolio level? And, why would tactical asset allocation be a superior replacement strategy? To the contrary, higher cost, less diversified, active investment strategies will do what they always do, which is lead on average to inferior risk-adusted returns at the porfolio level. Even in a dire financial crisis, you should not lose sight of the long-term and forget the lessons of financial history. Broadly diversified, passive, low-cost, buy-and-hold strategies have been superior in the past, and they are much more likely to beat tactical asset allocation strategies in the future.

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Without becoming a victim of identity theft, you can get a free credit report from each of the three credit reporting agencies once a year. Federal law requires the three major credit reporting agencies to provide these free reports annually. To satisfy their obligations, Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion jointly have established www.annualcreditreport.com, where you can order your free credit reports.

You can also call them at 1-877-322-8228 or write to them at Annual Credit Report Request Service, P.O. Box 105281, Atlanta, GA 30348-5281. Because the material in your credit reports is usually largely redundant across these three companies, stagger your requests over the year and rotate between the three firms. If there is any problem with your credit report, it usually will show up on any of your reports from these three firms.

(Avoid using any of those obnoxious free credit report copycat companies, such as “freecreditreport.com,” that advertise on TV, but will only supply “free” credit reports, when you pay a lot for their other supposedly valuable premium services. Also, if you are a woman, you probably have already figured out these freecreditreport.com TV advertisers are not to be trusted. Incredibly cluelessly, their TV ads always blame the bride’s bad credit for young guitar playing slacker hubby having to work at a pirate themed fast food job. What a clueless company marketing department to insult the female half of their target audience with their advertising budget! Have they written off women because women shop and are too smart to pay for something that is supposed to be free? Free credit reporting my keister! This is another confirmation that the Federal Communications Commission is dead at the wheel with respect to consumer protections. Companies can get away with confusing people, screaming “free, free, free,” and then charging people for something that they have a legal right to get for free, if they just knew the correct web address.}

Identity Theft Events Provide Opportunities to Lock Down Reporting about Your Credit

While identity theft is a large and growing problem and can be very costly and inconvenient to you, it is just a business cost and headache to financial and retail firms, who also have benefited greatly from the proliferation of easy credit.

One way to protect yourself is to put restrictions on your credit records with the three major credit reporting agencies, Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion. These credit reporting companies have made profitable businesses on both sides. They charge fees to business firms who may not always treat your financial information carefully, and they charge you fees when you want to restrict access to your financial information in their data bases.

For some, these credit information access restriction fees go away when you become an identity theft victim. Whether or not you lose money, if you become a victim of identity theft, this may actually be an opportunity for some of you. In some states, like California, identity theft victims can get long-term locks put on their accounts without having to pay fees to the three credit bureaus.

California Residents Can Get a Free Fraud Alert for Seven Years Following Even a Minor Fraud Event

If you live in California and have become a victim of identity theft, you have rights under California law as an identity theft victim to have your credit files frozen for seven years without paying fees to the credit reporting agencies for such a long-term “fraud alert.” For example, if your credit card shows suspicious charges that you did not make and even if your credit card company takes them off your statement, you still can make an identity theft report to your local police and get a police report. With this police report and by writing to the appropriate addresses and following the procedures, the three credit reporting agencies are obligated legally to put long-term fraud alerts on your credit reports.

The downside of locking your credit report is that you cannot yourself apply and be approved immediately for instant credit. The good news is that nobody else can do the same for seven years, as well. (Note that if you do need to apply for a credit card or refinance a mortgage, you still can do so, but the credit lock on your account just creates a delay. You have to proactively contact the credit bureaus to inform them of the validity your efforts to apply for more credit.)

Lock Up Your Credit at the Credit Reporting Agencies

The upside to locking your credit report is that new attempts to establish credit in your name are blocked without your permission. Not only does that mean that criminals cannot open new credit cards in your name, it means that you have greater protection from other kinds of credit related crimes. For example, the credit crisis has spawned a crime wave of mortgage and real estate line of credit frauds.

Criminals have opened credit lines in home owners names and then have quickly drained the credit lines of their funds. In addition, homes have been sold without the home owners knowledge and sometimes the knowledge even of the “buyer” who also had his or her identity stolen and was an unwitting participant in the transaction.

Obviously, it is better to prevent costly situations like these than clean them up. In addition, pay close attention to any document sent to you by your county registrar. Because of increasing real estate fraud some county registrars, including Los Angeles County, now send notices to the address of record whenever any deed or other records change is filed with them.

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